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Prediction for CME (2023-08-02T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-02T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26298/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen as a halo CME with a bulk portion seen more predominantly to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The more full halo portion is fairly faint in coronagraph imagery. The source of this CME is an S-shaped filament eruption stretching from roughly N10 to S15. There is clear dimming associated with this source as seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-08-02T08:00Z. This dimming stretches from W10 to W30 within the N10 to S15 latitudes. Arrival signature: clear magnetic field enhancement from 10 to 19 nT and later to about 23 nT along sharp rises in ACE/DSCOVR density, velocity, and temperature parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-05T02:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T21:13Z (-6.59h, +9.21h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/08/02 09:05Z
Plane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 20Rsun; WNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 17:10Z; 20Rsun; ESE Direction
POS Difference: 3:40
POS Midpoint: 15:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.62
Travel Time: ~9.62 * 6:15 = 60:08

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-08-04T21:13Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 10%

Lead Time: 51.77 hour(s)
Difference: 4.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-08-02T22:24Z

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